Just about everybody who has any interest in the first-year drivers expects Joey Logano to come out on top.
And why not? The 18-year-old phenom took over the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota this season from two-time Cup champion Tony Stewart. The much-heralded teen -- discovered by Mark Martin at age 14 -- is working with a seasoned crew headed by veteran crew chief Greg Zipadelli and his equipment is as good as anyone's in the elite series.
There would be plenty of eyebrows raised if, somehow, former Formula One driver Scott Speed or Max Papis, another former open-wheel racer, beat out Logano in the rookie race.
The 26-year-old Speed, one of the few Americans to get to F1, stuck around the globe-hopping circuit for two seasons, racing in 28 events for Toro Rosso -- Italian for Red Bull. His long-standing relationship with Red Bull, which also started a Cup team in 2007, brought him back to the U.S. in 2008 and gave the Californian a shot at NASCAR.
His brief apprenticeship last year included 16 truck series events, with one victory, and five Cup starts in preparation for a full-time run this year.
The 39-year-old Papis has been the ultimate auto racing journeyman, driving Champ Cars, IndyCars, sports cars, trucks and, now, stock cars.
The Italian is the longest of long shots, considering Germain Racing has sponsorship for only a partial Cup schedule, which is why last Sunday's race at Las Vegas was his first Cup drive of the season. Right now, Papis is scheduled to drive in 16 Cup events, the minimum to be eligible to race for rookie of the year.
"I know some people are surprised to see me here," Papis said before finishing 26th in his Cup debut on an oval. "But I am a race driver and this is what I want to do. I want to give it the best I have and see what we can accomplish."
So far, so good.
Unlike his rookie competitors, Papis is outside the top 35 in car owner points and has to qualify for each race. He crossed that hurdle easily at Las Vegas.
"We made the show for the first time on an oval and it just proved that perseverance pays off," Papis said. "I think it's a matter of heart, it's not a matter of cars. Getting in the shows has to be the first goal.
"We're learning. It's like I told everyone, we need to keep in mind why we are here. Basically, we haven't been able to go do any practice. We are racing against people that have been doing this for 10 years plus and that's the perspective that you keep in mind."
After the first three races of 2009, the rookie race is a toss-up between Logano and Speed, with the teen leading 32-31 after being the top finishing rookie in the last two races. Papis brings up the rear with 9 points, but hopes to qualify for Sunday's race at Atlanta and cut into the margin.
It hasn't been an easy transition for Logano, either, although he is improving each week.
After crashing and finishing last in the Daytona 500, the youngster finished 26th at California and then moved up to 13th at Las Vegas.
"I look at myself and say, 'Hey, I probably could have got a top-10,' but that's part of being a rookie and I learned from it," Logano said. "I feel like I'm getting better and I'm learning every weekend so much, and it's helping me so much.
"The last two races, we were good by the end of the race. We've got to kind of work on getting good earlier. But I'm definitely getting more comfortable in these cars. It just takes time. ... By no means are we there yet, but we're getting closer."
Speed has finishes of 35th, 41st and 21st and is still trying to figure out how to make his No. 82 Red Bull Racing Toyota better each week.
"Where I need to work is to be able to figure out what the car needs and wants," Speed said. "But, honestly, having the car bad and making it better gives me a better idea of what does what on the car, so (Sunday) was a good day. We learned a lot."
While it's early in the season and none of the trio is thinking much about rookie of the year, they agree it would be an honor worth taking.
"If I win it, it means we've had a pretty good season and we've beaten a couple of real good drivers," Logano said.
Speed said, "I don't think about those things very much, but people keep asking me about it and it would be great to be on the list with some of the great drivers who won it before."
Papis said he can't afford to think that far ahead.
"What we have to do now is make sure we qualify for every race we're in and get the most out of the car and our time on the track each week," he said. "If things go well, maybe we can go for it at the end of the year. It would be fun -- especially since nobody expects us to do it."
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