Everything seems to favor Scott Dixon in his bid to win a second straight IRL IndyCar Series championship.
Helio Castroneves, the 2008 runner-up who pushed Dixon to last season's final checkered flag, will miss at least the first few races of 2009 while defending himself against federal tax evasion charges.
And 2007 series champion Dario Franchitti, Dixon's new teammate at Target Chip Ganassi Racing and considered by many his major challenger, may take a while to shake off the rust after a failed bid to transition to NASCAR last year.
Dixon, meanwhile, heads into the season-opening race at St. Petersburg on Sunday with the same strong team that took him to his second series title last season.
But the New Zealander laughed when a reporter said it looks like he has an easier road this year to another IndyCar championship.
"Yeah, right," he said, shaking his head. "To try and repeat 2008 is going to be very tough. ... We definitely are going to have a target on our backs and it's going to be a hard season.
"It's a shame that Helio is having to go through this and will miss the start of the season, but there are plenty of drivers, including my teammate, that are going to make this one of the most competitive seasons ever in our series."
Castroneves, the personable Brazilian as well known for winning "Dancing with the Stars" as for his two Indianapolis 500 victories, is also at risk of having his racing career short.
Franchitti, whose NASCAR experiment ended abruptly last summer due to a lack of sponsorship, is confident he can get up to speed in an IndyCar fast enough to be a threat for a second championship.
"I felt good at the (offseason) tests," he said. "It came back quickly and, being with this team, with all the resources that Chip gives them, is a big help, too."
Franchitti, who won his title with Andretti Green Racing, also expects a hard-fought championship battle from former AGR teammate Tony Kanaan, Team Penske drivers Ryan Briscoe and Will Power -- the at-least temporary replacement for Castroneves -- and possibly several others.
Unlike the chaotic start to last season, which began just six weeks after the unexpected unification of IndyCar and longtime rival Champ Car, the drivers and teams that made that transition now have all the latest equipment and a year's worth of experience with the cars and the tracks.
"I know some of the drivers and teams who made the transition last year from Champ Car had to figure everything out because it was so new, particularly the ovals," Franchitti said. "But they're very good and I won't be surprised if somebody like Newman/Haas/Lanigan (Racing), with (Graham Rahal) and (Robert) Doornbos, are very competitive."
"I think more than ever this year it will be about winning races," said Kanaan, last year's third-place finisher and the 2004 series champion. "(Last year) Helio showed how consistent you can be and still not win a championship, and Dixon showed that winning races is the best way. It's a combination, but winning races this year is going to be more important."
Dixon matched the season-record of six victories in 2008, but didn't wrap up the title until the final points race of the year as Castroneves applied the pressure. The Brazilian gave Dixon a scare with both of his season wins, four runner-up finishes and a third all coming in the final seven races of the season.
Lack of consistency was a problem for AGR last year, with its four drivers combining for just two wins, 21 top-five finishes and 40 top-10s in 68 starts.
But, for the first time since 2005, the team's lineup returns intact, led by Kanaan. He is joined by Danica Patrick, coming off a year in which racing's glamor girl finally got her long-awaited first victory and improved to sixth place in the points, 22-year-old Marco Andretti, son of team co-owner and longtime driving great Michael Andretti, and 2008 rookie of the year Hideki Mutoh.
"Continuity is definitely a nice thing," said Michael Andretti, whose team has won three titles in the last five seasons. "There's no adjusting going on. That's always good because you can hit it strong right away. Everybody knows everybody. That's definitely a positive for us."
Kanaan expects big improvement from everyone.
"Last year was a year we could say, 'Oh, they're young, they're learning,' but now it's time to do it," Kanaan said. "We did not deliver as much as we should have last year. I think we failed on the driver's side to get it done. We talked, and this year we're saying, 'No excuses.' "
To that end, AGR made some personnel changes, hiring longtime open-wheel engineer Peter Gibbons to work with the younger Andretti, moving Eddie Jones to the engineer's position for Patrick's car and having Michael Andretti move from overseeing his son's car to becoming race strategist for Patrick.
"Those are all positive moves and I think we've strengthened the team," the elder Andretti said.
Newman/Haas/Lanigan, long a power in Champ Car, which began as CART, has had a year to get its act together and the 20-year-old Rahal goes into St. Petersburg as the defending race winner -- his one victory in 2008.
"This team has proven in the past it knows how to win," Rahal said. "With a year under our belt in the IndyCar Series, we should be stronger and more consistent."
Although the battle up front may look familiar this season, the worldwide economic crisis has hit IndyCar as hard as any other business entity.
Teams below the top tier have struggled to find sponsors and several had to wait until the last minute to sign drivers. Only 21 cars are expected to be on track Friday for the opening practice, five fewer than at last year's St. Petersburg race -- although that number is likely to climb before the Indy 500 in May.
Drivers who raced at St. Pete last year who are not returning for 2009 include Indy 500 winner Buddy Rice, Oriol Servia, Bruno Junqueira, A.J. Foot IV, Enrique Bernoldi, Darren Manning, Jay Howard, Franck Perera, Townsend Bell and Marty Roth.
The rookies who will race include Doornbos, a former Formula One and Champ Car driver from the Netherlands, Indy Lights champion Raphael Matos, Hollywood stuntman and NASCAR journeyman Stanton Barrett and British driver Mike Conway.
"When I made the move from Formula One to Champ Car in 2007, I had no knowledge of circuits, tires, drivers, engine, whatever of that series, and I had five podiums out of the first six races," said Doornbos, who finished third and won top rookie honors that year and is Rahal's new teammate. "I think my attitude is the same for the IndyCar Series.
"The team contacted me because they know what I can do, and I'm here to do the best job I can. Of course I have respect for the ovals, there's still a steep learning curve, but nothing to be worried about. I feel at home already."
It looks like nobody should be too comfortable heading into the new season. It's likely to be a very competitive year from top to bottom.
